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\u7d71\u8a08\u5b78\u5bb6\u8aaa\uff1a\u767e\u5bb6\u6a02\u6bcf\u4e00\u624b\u7684\u958b\u724c\u7d50\u679c\u90fd\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u7368\u7acb\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u524d\u9762\u7684\u8def\u8ddf\u5f8c\u9762\u7684\u7d50\u679c\u5b8c\u5168\u7121\u95dc\uff1b\u800c\u4e14\uff0c\u767e\u5bb6\u6a02\u7684\u724c\u8def\u591a\u5f97\u96e3\u4ee5\u52dd\u6578\uff0c\u5f9e\u5e7e\u5343\u9774\u88e1\u9762\u627e\u51fa\u4f86\u7684\u898f\u5f8b\uff0c\u53ea\u4e0d\u904e\u662f\u300c\u8c61\u300d\u7684\u4e00\u5c0f\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u7528\u5b83\u4f86\u5224\u65b7\u5f8c\u9762\u7684\u958b\u724c\u7d50\u679c\uff0c\u5f9e\u800c\u6c7a\u5b9a\u4e0b\u4e00\u624b\u7684\u6295\u6ce8\uff0c\u6700\u5f8c\u5fc5\u5b9a\u662f\u6b7b\u8def\u4e00\u689d\uff0c\u9019\u662f\u300c\u5c71\u300d\u7684\u7406\u8ad6\u3002
\u8ced\u5834\u8001\u9f20\u6216\u8d0f\u5bb6\u537b\u8aaa\uff1a\u6211\u5011\u6703\u5728\u80fd\u5920\u8d0f\u7684\u724c\u8def\u91cc\u76e1\u91cf\u8d0f\uff0c\u5728\u6703\u8f38\u7684\u724c\u8def\u91cc\u53ea\u6703\u62bd\u8eab\u4f5c\u58c1\u4e0a\u89c0\uff0c\u4fbf\u80fd\u9054\u5230\u8d0f \u591a\u8f38\u5c11\u7684\u76ee\u7684\uff1b\u6211\u5011\u6703\u628a\u63e1\u5728\u4e00\u9774\u724c\u5167\u7684\u4e00\u5c0f\u6bb5\uff0c\u5728\u300c\u9069\u7576\u7684\u6642\u5019\u300d\u907f\u958b\u6216\u4e0b\u91cd\u6ce8\uff0c\u5c31\u80fd\u5728\u8ced\u5834\u5167\u7a69\u5b9a\u5730\u8d0f\u9322\uff0c\u9019\u662f\u300c\u6c34\u300d\u7684\u7406\u8ad6\u3002
\u5fae\u7b11\u8aaa\uff1a\u300c\u8ced\u767e\u5bb6\u6a02\uff0c\u6700\u95dc\u9375\u8655\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u4e0b\u98a8\u6642\u8981\u5fcd\u8981\u505c\uff0c\u4e0d\u53ef\u6025\u8e81\uff0c\u6162\u6162\u7b49\u5f85\u9023\u8d0f\u6a5f\u6703\u7684\u51fa\u73fe\u300d \u3002\u554f\u984c\u7d42\u65bc\u56de\u4f86\u4e86\uff0c\u5230\u5e95\u5fcd\u751a\u9ebc\uff1f\u4f55\u6642\u662f\u9023\u8d0f\u7684\u6a5f\u6703\uff1f\uff1f\u600e\u6a23\u5c0b\u627e\u6240\u8b02\u300c\u9069\u7576\u7684\u6642\u5019\u300d\u4f86\u63d0\u9ad8\u52dd\u7387\uff1f\uff1f\uff1f\u5230\u5e95\u600e\u6a23\u5c0b\u627e\u8d0f\u591a\u8f38\u5c11\u7684Happy hour\uff0c\u6216\u638c\u63e1\u5e78\u904b\u6642\u6bb5?
\u5fae\u7b11\u5fc3\u6cd5\u8aaa\u8981\u898b\u5fae\u77e5\u8457\u3001\u8981\u9bae\u6d3b\u9748\u52d5\u3001\u8981\u7121\u70ba\u800c\u7121\u4e0d\u70ba\u2026\u2026\uff1b\u96e3\u9053\u771f\u7684\u662f\u300c\u6cd5\u7121\u5b9a\u6cd5\u300d\uff01\u2026\u2026 ^_^
\u300e\u770b\u201d\u8def\u201d\u662f\u6c92\u6709\u7528\u7684\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u6c92\u6709\u5fc5\u7136\u7684\u201d\u8def\u201d\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u4e5f\u6c92\u6709\u5fc5\u52dd\u7684\u8ced\u6cd5\uff1b\u4efb\u4f55\u7684\u6295\u6ce8\u65b9\u6cd5\u6545\u6b64\u4e5f\u6709\u6b7b\u7a74\uff1b\u7121\u8ad6\u662f\u90a3\u4e00\u7a2e\uff0c\u90fd\u4e0d\u6703\u4e00\u76f4\u5730\u8f38\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u6703\u4e00\u76f4\u5730\u8d0f\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u6709\u6642\u8f38\uff0c\u6709\u6642\u8d0f\u3002\u62ff\u4efb\u4f55\u4e00\u500b\u683c\u5f0f\u5728\u8ced\u5834\u4e0a\u4e00\u76f4\u6295\u6ce8\u4e0b\u53bb\uff0c\u6a5f\u6703\u6c38\u9060\u662f\u8f38\u8d0f\u53c3\u534a\u3002\u5fae\u7b11\u5fc3\u6cd5\u4e5f\u6c92\u6709\u4f8b\u5916\u3002\u300f
\u7b46\u8005\u7d55\u5c0d\u540c\u610f\u4ee5\u4e0a\u9019\u756a\u8aaa\u8a71\uff01\u90a3\u9ebc\u5fae\u7b11\u5fc3\u6cd5\u548c\u5176\u5b83\u7684\u6295\u6ce8\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u5728\u767e\u5bb6\u6a02\u9762\u524d\uff0c\u6c38\u9060\u4e5f\u662f\u624b\u4e0b\u6557\u5c07\u554a\u2026\uff01
\u6211\u60f3\u770b\u5230\u9019\u88e1\uff0c\u5927\u5bb6\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u8a8d\u70ba\u7b46\u8005\u5c0d\u6311\u6230\u767e\u5bb6\u6a02\u7684\u614b\u5ea6\uff0c\u53c8\u662f\u8ddf\u5176\u4ed6\u7406\u8ad6\u5927\u5e2b\u7684\u7d50\u8ad6\u90fd\u662f\u4e00\u6a23\u5427\u3002\u4f46\u8acb\u4f60\u5011\u8010\u5fc3\u5730\u770b\u4e0b\u53bb\uff0c\u6700\u5f8c\u6211\u60f3\u8d77\u78bc\u6703\u6709\u4e00\u9663\u5fae\u98a8\uff0c\u52a9\u5927\u5bb6\u5439\u958b\u524d\u9762\u7684\u4e00\u9ede\u9ede\u96f2\u6d77\uff0c\u8b93\u5927\u5bb6\u80fd\u770b\u6e05\u695a\u4e00\u4e9b\u6295\u6ce8\u6cd5\u8207\u767e\u5bb6\u6a02\u7684\u5168\u50cf\uff01
\u4e94\u3001\u95dc\u65bc\u5fc5\u52dd\u6cd5
\u96d6\u7136\u5927\u6578\u6cd5\u5247\u6697\u793a\u9019\u4e16\u4e0a\u53ea\u61c9\u6709\u300c\u5c71\u300d\uff0c\u4e0d\u8a72\u6709\u300c\u6c34\u300d\uff1b\u4f46\u504f\u504f\u767c\u8868\u5fc5\u52dd\u6cd5\u7684\u670b\u53cb\u537b\u524d\u50d5\u5f8c\u7e7c\uff0c\u591a\u5982\u96e8\u5f8c\u6625\u7b4d\uff1b\u66f4\u6709\u4e00\u4e9b\u670b\u53cb\u64c1\u5fc5\u52dd\u6cd5\u800c\u81ea\u79d8\uff0c\u8aaa\u5f97\u8d85\u51e1\u812b\u4fd7\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u5439\u5653\u4e00\u756a\u5f8c\uff0c\u65b9\u6cd5\u59cb\u7d42\u6b20\u5949\u3002\u7b46\u8005\u73fe\u5728\u4e5f\u4f86\u6e4a\u6e4a\u71b1\u9b27\uff0c\u628a\u300c\u6c34\u300d\u8ad6\u5fc5\u52dd\u3002
1. \u5fc5\u52dd\u6cd5\u7684\u689d\u4ef6
\u6709\u4e00\u4e9b\u670b\u53cb\u767c\u660e\u7684\u5fc5\u52dd\u6cd5\u78ba\u80fd\u65bc\u4e00\u6bb5\u6642\u9593\u5167\u8d0f\u9322\uff0c\u4f46\u4ed6\u5011\u80fd\u8d0f\u9322\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u4e26\u4e0d\u5728\u65bc\u8a72\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u5728\u65bc\u5b83\u5011\u4f7f\u7528\u7684\u7e9c\u5f0f\u3002
\u9019\u985e\u670b\u53cb\u901a\u5e38\u4f7f\u7528\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u7e9c\u5f0f\u4f86\u6295\u6ce8\uff0c\u7531\u65bc\u4e8c\u5f0f\u7e9c\u3001\u4e09\u5f0f\u7e9c\u3001\u56db\u5f0f\u7e9c\u2026\u7b49\u7684\u53d6\u52dd\u6a5f\u7387\u4f9d\u6b21\u5e8f\u70ba75%\u300187.5%\u548c93.75%\u7b49\u7b49\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u9ad8\u7684\u53d6\u52dd\u7387\u5f88\u591a\u6642\u5019\u6703\u88ab\u8aa4\u6703\u70ba\u662f\u8a72\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u53d6\u52dd\u7387\uff0c\u5be6\u8cea\u537b\u662f\u7e9c\u5f0f\u7684\u6210\u6548\u3002
\u8981\u5206\u8fa8\u53d6\u52dd\u7387\u662f\u5426\u4f86\u81ea\u7e9c\u5f0f\uff0c\u7c21\u55ae\u7684\u8a08\u7b97\u516c\u5f0f\u662f\uff1a
\u65b7\u7e9c\u7387 = \u65b7\u7e9c\u6b21\u6578 \u00f7 \u6295\u6ce8\u6b21\u6578 x 100%
\u5047\u82e5\u4e00\u7a2e\u81ea\u7a31\u5fc5\u52dd\u6cd5\u4f7f\u7528\u4e09\u5f0f\u7e9c\u4e0b\u6ce8\uff0c\u73a9\u4e86100\u6b21\uff0c\u65b7\u4e8611\u6b21\u7e9c\uff0c\u65b7\u7e9c\u7387\u662f11%\uff0c\u9019\u500b\u65b9\u6cd5\u8ddf\u4e09\u5f0f\u7e9c\u7684\u672c\u8eab\u65b7\u7e9c\u738712.5%\u5341\u5206\u63a5\u8fd1\uff0c\u6545\u6b64\uff0c\u6b64\u65b9\u6cd5\u4fbf\u4e0d\u80fd\u7b97\u662f\u5fc5\u52dd\u6cd5\u4e86\u3002
\u5176\u5be6\u8981\u5206\u8fa8\u6295\u6ce8\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u53d6\u52dd\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u5426\u6e90\u65bc\u5e78\u904b\uff0c\u662f\u9700\u8981\u4e00\u500b\u6709\u6548\u7684\u6a23\u672c\u6578\u4f86\u8a55\u5b9a\uff0c\u4f46\u5230\u5e95\u591a\u5c11\u7684\u6a23\u672c\u6578\u624d\u5177\u6709\u4ee3\u8868\u6027\uff1f
\u5728\u6982\u7387\u539f\u5247\u4e0a\uff0c\u96d6\u7136\u6c92\u6709\u4e00\u500b\u6a19\u6e96\u7684\u6578\u5b57\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u4f86\u8a55\u5b9a\u591a\u5c11\u500b\u6a23\u672c\u6578\u624d\u80fd\u8b49\u660e\u4e00\u500b\u6295\u6ce8\u6cd5\u7684\u6210\u6548\uff1b\u4f46\u537b\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u8a72\u904a\u6232\u7684\u6a23\u672c\u5e73\u5747\u6578(Sample mean)\u7684\u6a19\u6e96\u5dee(Standard deviation)\u4f86\u63a8\u7b97\u3002\u4e00\u4f4d\u7cbe\u7b97\u5e2b\u8a08\u7b97\u904e\uff0c\u5982\u8981\u9054\u81f3\u4fe1\u5fc3\u6c34\u5e73(Confident level) \u70ba95%\uff0c\u800c\u6a23\u672c\u5e73\u5747\u6578\u5728\u771f\u5be6\u5e73\u5747\u6578(Actual mean) \u6b63\u8ca0\u8aa4\u5dee\u57281%\u4e4b\u5167\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc\u4ee5\u767e\u5bb6\u6a02\u4f86\u8aaa\uff0c\u4e00\u500b\u5fc5\u52dd\u6cd5\u5c31\u9700\u8981\u670933,944\u500b\u6a23\u672c\u6578\uff0c\u4f86\u8b49\u660e\u5b83\u7684\u5be6\u6548\u3002
\u5373\u662f\u8aaa\u4efb\u4f55\u4e00\u500b\u81ea\u7a31\u662f\u5fc5\u52dd\u6cd5\uff0c\u90fd\u9700\u8981\u7d93\u904e33,944\u6b21\u7684\u6295\u6ce8\u5f8c\uff0c\u5982\u90a3\u65b9\u6cd5\u4ecd\u7136\u53ef\u4ee5\u53d6\u5f97\u76c8\u5229\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc\u9019\u500b\u65b9\u6cd5\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u771f\u7684\u7a31\u5f97\u4e0a\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u5fc5\u52dd\u6cd5\u4e86\u3002
\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u6211\u4e5f\u5e0c\u671b\u90a3\u4e9b\u62b1\u8457\u79d8\u800c\u4e0d\u5ba3\u5fc5\u52dd\u6cd5\u7684\u670b\u53cb\u5011\uff0c\u8a08\u7b97\u4e00\u4e0b\u4f60\u5011\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u65b7\u7e9c\u7387\uff0c\u548c\u60f3\u4e00\u60f3\u4f60\u5011\u7684\u4e0b\u6ce8\u6a23\u672c\u6578\u76ee\uff1b\u73fe\u5728\u4f60\u5011\u9084\u5920\u81bd\u8aaa\u4f60\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u662f\u5fc5\u52dd\u55ce\uff1f
\u5f9e\u9019\u500b\u89d2\u5ea6\u770b\uff0c\u627e\u300c\u6c34\u300d\u4e26\u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u4ef6\u5bb9\u6613\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\uff01
2. \u767e\u5bb6\u6a02\u7684\u5fc5\u52dd\u6cd5\u662f\u5426\u5b58\u5728\uff1f
\u5c71\u88e1\u8981\u7a4d\u6c34\u6210\u6e56\uff0c\u5c31\u5fc5\u9808\u8981\u6709\u805a\u6c34\u7684\u689d\u4ef6\uff0c\u6c34\u6709\u5411\u4e0b\u6d41\u548c\u84b8\u767c\u7684\u7279\u6027\uff1b\u8981\u805a\u6c34\u5c31\u61c9\u8a72\u8981\u6709\u4e00\u4e9b\u51f9\u9677\u8655\u6216\u96b1\u853d\u7684\u5730\u65b9\u4f86\u990a\u6c34\uff0c\u6c34\u805a\u800c\u4e0d\u6d29\uff0c\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u6210\u6e56\uff1b\u5426\u5247\u6c34\u4f86\u6c34\u53bb\uff0c\u4fbf\u6703\u767d\u5fd9\u4e00\u5834\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\u5982\u679c\u80fd\u627e\u5230\u51f9\u9677\u8655\u6216\u96b1\u853d\u7684\u5730\u65b9\uff0c\u7406\u8ad6\u4e0a\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u9593\u63a5\u8b49\u660e\u77ad\u6c34\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u3002
\u64f2\u9322\u5e63\u662f\u4e00\u7a2e\u7368\u7acb\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u4e00\u500b\u9322\u5e63\u82e5\u88ab\u9023\u7e8c\u64f2\u4e86\u5341\u6b21\uff0c\u800c\u8a72\u5341\u6b21\u7684\u7d50\u679c\u662f\u300c\u516c\u300d\uff0c\u7b2c\u5341\u4e00\u6b21\u64f2\u51fa\u300c\u5b57\u300d\u7684\u6a5f\u6703\u4f9d\u7136\u662f\u4e8c\u4efd\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c\u7b2c\u5341\u4e00\u6b21\u7684\u6295\u64f2\u7d50\u679c\u662f\u4e0d\u6703\u53d7\u5230\u524d\u9762\u7684\u5341\u6b21\u7d50\u679c\u800c\u5f71\u97ff\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u5f88\u591a\u8ced\u5f92\u537b\u6301\u76f8\u53cd\u7684\u610f\u898b\uff0c\u9019\u662f\u8457\u540d\u7684\u300c\u8ced\u5f92\u7684\u8b2c\u8aa4\u300d\u3002
\u64f2\u9322\u5e63\u7684\u7406\u8ad6\u901a\u5e38\u6703\u88ab\u5f15\u7528\u81f3\u767e\u5bb6\u6a02\u7684\u904a\u6232\u4e2d\uff0c\u5f88\u591a\u6578\u5b78\u5bb6\u540c\u6a23\u8a8d\u70ba\u524d\u9762\u51fa\u73fe\u7684\u838a\u9592\u7d50\u679c\uff0c\u5c0d\u5f8c\u9762\u7684\u958b\u724c\u7d50\u679c\u662f\u5b8c\u5168\u6c92\u6709\u5f71\u97ff\u7684\uff0c\u9019\u4fbf\u662f\u300c\u6578\u5b78\u5bb6\u7684\u8b2c\u8aa4\u300d\u3002
\u767e\u5bb6\u6a02\u4e26\u975e\u662f\u4e00\u7a2e\u5b8c\u5168\u7368\u7acb\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u904a\u6232\uff0c\u5b83\u7684\u7d50\u679c\u6e90\u81ea\u958b\u51fa\u7684\u724c\u9ede\u7d44\u5408\u3002\u96d6\u7136\u4e00\u9774\u724c\u6216\u5341\u9774\u724c\u7684\u7d44\u5408\u662f\u5929\u6587\u6578\u5b57\uff0c\u4f46\u724c\u6578\u3001\u9ede\u6578\u8207\u535a\u724c\u65b9\u6cd5\u59cb\u7d42\u662f\u6709\u898f\u9650\u7684\uff0c\u5df2\u51fa\u904e\u7684\u724c\u4e0d\u6703\u518d\u91cd\u5fa9\uff0c\u6027\u8cea\u5c6c\u65bc\u4e92\u76f8\u6392\u62d2\uff1b\u6240\u4ee5\u524d\u9762\u7684\u958b\u724c\u7d50\u679c\u8207\u5f8c\u9762\u7684\u958b\u724c\u7d50\u679c\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u5b8c\u5168\u6c92\u6709\u95dc\u806f\u3002
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3. \u5fc5\u52dd\u6cd5\u8207\u5fc5\u8f38\u4eba
\u6709\u4e00\u9805\u95dc\u65bc\u5fc5\u52dd\u6cd5\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u7d93\u5e38\u88ab\u932f\u8aa4\u5047\u8a2d\uff1a\u5fc5\u52dd\u6cd5\u5fc5\u9700\u662f99%\u628a\u628a\u62bc\u4e2d\uff0c\u6216100%\u767e\u767c\u767c\u4e2d\u3002\u6211\u5011\u8a66\u5206\u6790\u4e00\u4e0b\u8ced\u5834\u512a\u52e2(House edge) \uff0c\u8ced\u5834\u91cc\u7684\u904a\u6232\u4e00\u822c\u53ea\u6709\u4e00\u81f3\u5e7e\u500b\u767e\u4efd\u9ede\u7684\u512a\u52e2\uff0c\u4f46\u537b\u5df2\u8db3\u5920\u5728\u8207\u8ced\u5ba2\u7684\u7af6\u722d\u4e2d\uff0c\u53d6\u5f97\u5ee3\u6cdb\u6027\u53ca\u58d3\u5012\u6027\u7684\u52dd\u5229\u3002
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